Here's a number worth sitting with: in most seeded brackets, opening rounds produce the most lopsided outcomes of the entire event, because mismatches get sorted early. I get the excitement of a first match, I really do. But calling this the test of who deserves to advance assumes Round 1 measures merit, when it mostly measures seeding luck. A championship is decided over many rounds, not by whoever draws the softest opener. So no, I won't treat Match 1 as the thing that settles it.