The problem with the supernatural cannot merely be a lack of evidence or testability as many untestable unproven hypotheses have more traction in science not to mention science sees a problem with even proposing a supernatural explanation a priori the reason cannot be a mere direct lack of evidence in the sense of no proof not worth believing in rather the lack of expected evidence false predictions reveals something more serious. Note the problem is still a lack of evidence that would be expected on paper but goes beyond merely no evidence not worth believing in the lack of expected evidence the actual evidence of the cosmos reveals a major misalignment between how the universe works and the cognitive engine of the type of supernatural most people believe in that goes beyond the data isn’t conclusive and one must remain agnostic. The evidence leads to a conclusion stronger than complete agnosticism. The type of supernatural most people believe in can be summarized as human like agency that suspends the known laws of physics and a universe that at its core is narrative driven and human centric. Examples include theistic interventionist gods which most people believe in 2.3 Billion Christians 1 Billion Muslims a few million Jews. Others believe in some kind of woo 80-90% of Americans. Of course there is Deism and the idea that God is merely a grounding and doesn’t intervene as well as occasional anomalies and interventions but this isn’t what most people believe in most Christians believe in the efficacy of prayer in the miracles in the Bible most Muslims believe in Muhammad’s miracles most Catholics believe in the trans substantiation. People who believe in crystals astrology and homeopathy don’t believe these are one off anomalies but these are repeatable otherwise the idea of a horoscope makes no sense. These aren’t one off anomalies or an abstract deist God. Scientists have studied the universe all though they haven’t explored every small inch of it they know the laws that underly the vast majority of the universe they can track statistical patterns and they can track its history and evolution. And in every case we see a universe that looks exactly like there is no agency only blind unguided forces. If these interventionist agents existed would even if on paper hidden would accumulate statistical patterns in the large scale structure an example is if prayer worked one would expect to see large trends in the data relating to recovery and belief one would Expect to see statistical correlations in birth and personality that matches astrology of true. If evolution was genuinely guided and teleological and used by an interventionist God one would expect statistical patterns strange genetic correlations and drifts that do not make sense. This is how people catch cheating. Yet we don’t but we would expect to. The defenses are always to engineer and edit the claim to make t unfalsifiable in several ways. If you test it the agents will hide or the agents don’t intervene in clear ways and act as if they aren’t there or they only intervene in very rare cases. there are problems with this as it makes it amount to last thursdayism for some and in other cases even if anomalous science can still study the anomalies and deduce the cause not to mention the idea of this type of supernatural isn’t what most people believe in in practice. No believer in astrology believes in a subtle form of astrology identical to there being no astrology almost no believers in the Christian God believes God answers prayers but in a way that is identical to there being no God. Looking at the universe as a whole down to its laws the idea of human centric agency and teleology and a narrative driven universe just isn’t aligned with how the universe actually works which the evidence reveals. For example humans have been around for a very short time the vast majority of the universe is hostile towards life the laws of physics don’t have agency and behave as an unguided machine we don’t see any teleological correlations in the data or patterns that break this paradigm. The totality of the evidence shows a universe that simply isn’t aligned with the idea of a narrative driven human centric universe. This is why future supernatural claims and the idea is rejected. One could say methodological naturalism and parsimony but why is the natural more parsimonious it comes back to this due to how claims fit in a larger context a God who acts in exactly the way he would had he never existed vs natural processes natural processes fit the larger context better. Also given how agency and teleology have failed badly in the past what reason is there to think suddenly it will become the right answer how well an idea does in science is more indicative of its value than its current status and as we see in the history of science teleological agentic explanations follow a downward trajectory.

But the supernatural as far as the one most people believe in has been tested there are studies Showing prayer doesn’t work not to mention every miracle claim has failed. The evidential problem reveals that this framework is very likely wrong given the track record and the fact that how an idea does in science is more indicative as stated at the end makes the related vague claims unlikely as they are still based on the same underlying principles. Also vague claims aren’t what most people believe in the idea of trans substantiation isn’t vague the idea of the resurrection isn’t vague the idea of crystal healing isn’t vague neither is astrology in principle. These are only made vague after the fact to shield from evidence. The analogy with supplement fails as it’s not at all equivalent a better analogy is what if every supplement has failed badly and science gives us strong reasons to think such a supplement cannot work and that the idea is misaligned with all of medicine this suddenly makes it more unlikely and the reasonable position Beyond mere agnosticism.

It’s not a logical disproof but an evidential case against. Saying cosmic indifference and failed prayer intentionally understates the case. There’s also the actual laws the lack of expected patterns in the statistical collective behavior this is how cheating is detected in games. There’s also every miracle claim failing and the fact that we have tested telepathy astrology rigorouslt and every time failed. Absence of expected patterns isn’t disproof in the logical sense but is evidence against it. And the claim the supplement isn’t harmful isn’t the claim the claim was never the supernatural is harmful just that the lack of expected evidence and falsifications reveal serious problems that warrant a stronger position than agnosticism as well as a structural misalignment. It’s not merely one underpowered trial for the universe it’s ever past supplement failing knowing enough about the human body to show such a concept of the supplement simply cannot work it flying in the face of repeatable solid theories.