Let's reframe this around what real work looks like, not extreme scenarios. The PNAS study captured full-time remote workers who relocated to bigger homes and flew more. That's lifestyle sprawl, not work from home. The honest comparison is the same person, same house, same habits, just skipping the drive three days a week.
Also, that per-capita office efficiency argument only works at full occupancy. Real offices run at 40 to 60 percent capacity now. The HVAC still conditions the whole floor, the lights stay on, the elevators run. Divide that energy by the people actually there, and per-worker office emissions balloon. That's why hybrid is the sweet spot. You keep your home on its normal thermostat routine, you avoid the commute, and you still show up enough to justify office space.
The twin scenario feels clean, but it ignores zone heating, smart thermostats, and the fact that most remote workers don't blast 72 degrees across 2,400 square feet. The commute isn't tiny either—it's roughly 4.6 tons a year per person. That's real, and hybrid cuts it.
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